Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
