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At first, Trump seemed to take a firm position concerning Ukraine. Following making warnings of "severe repercussions" in August if Russia's president carried on blocking truce discussions, he finally enacted major sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision substantially affected Putin's ability to fund his military invasion in the region.

However, through his latest comprehensive peace initiative for Ukraine, that was developed by both nations' officials without Ukraine's or EU participation, he has clearly reverted to his Russia-friendly stance.

Benefiting Aggression

Trump's proposal would effectively benefit Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's political freedom in jeopardy. Although strong declarations that "The nation's autonomy will be confirmed", significant aspects of the initiative effectively weaken that same sovereignty. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would probably be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Demonstrating his business experience, Trump continues to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a simple border issue, like giving Putin a section of Ukrainian soil will please the ruler. But, Russia's war is not only about controlling a destroyed area of deindustrialized territory in eastern Ukraine. Rather, it is about Ukraine's political system – and the Russian leader's obvious intention to eliminate it so it no longer serves as an attractive standard for the Russia's population of the responsible leadership that his growing dictatorship prevents them.

Territorial Surrenders

While freezing in place the already separated regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the plan would require Ukraine to surrender all of this eastern territory. In addition to favoring Russia with land that its forces have been failed to occupy in over a decade of conflict, this concession would leave Ukrainian defensive positions critically weakened.

Donetsk is the location of the nation's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the entrenched military defenses that represent a key impediment to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine abandon these defenses, leaving Russian forces a clear path to the capital in case he later opt to renew the hostilities.

Defense Reductions

Furthermore, in a step that would facilitate additional conflict easier for the Russian military, Trump would mandate the nation to diminish the scale of its military from their present approximately 800,000 soldiers to a maximum of this lower number. Significantly, the initiative places no similar limits on Russia's military.

Apparently as a concession to Russia's campaign to characterize Ukraine's democratically elected leadership as radicals, the plan asserts: "All Nazi ideology and activities must be condemned and banned." Apparently to underscore this element, it requires that "The nation will hold elections in 100 days" of a peace deal. However, Trump places no requirement that Putin risk his regime by holding votes in his own country.

Defense Assurances

Admittedly, the proposal includes Russia pledge not to "attack bordering nations" and to "incorporate in legislation its policy of peaceful relations towards the EU and Ukraine". Yet taking into account that the Russian leadership has breached equivalent agreements in the history – such as the 1994 agreement, in which Russia promised to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for giving up its historical nuclear weapons, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow promised to a ceasefire and a return of occupied land in the Donbas to Kyiv – why should the international community have confidence in Russia now?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so determined on international defense commitments. While the initiative promises a "decisive unified military response" in case Russia resume its aggression, and includes that "The nation will receive strong security guarantees", the details include unclear to alarming. The initiative would not only prevent the nation alliance membership but also prevent member states from stationing forces on Ukrainian territory, thus blocking the peacekeeping contingent, likely headed by European powers, on which Ukraine had been depending to deter Putin from replenishing his diminished military, rearming, and attacking again.

World Reaction

An additional supplementary accord reportedly would provide the nation with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any later "major, intentional, and sustained aggression" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an act of war jeopardizing the peace and security of the Western nations." That suggests a defense action. However unlike a capable Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's best defense against renewed invasion – the effectiveness of the side agreement would rely on the willingness of Nato leaders, like the US administration, to respond with force to Putin's attacks, something they have {not